A month ago, Kamala Harris was flying high, enjoying a surge of support in the aftermath of Joe Biden being forced out of the presidential race. The race didn’t quite feel over at that time, but it certainly wasn’t the best time for the Trump campaign.
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That’s all changed with the release of several new polls showing the former president gaining ground and even leading. As RedState reported, the latest Times/Sienna poll, which election guru Nate Silver has rated as the best pollster in the country, showed Donald Trump with a one-point lead against Harris. That’s significant given the Republican advantage in the electoral college.
SEE: Trump Takes Shocking Lead in Latest Times Poll, Changes Perception of the Race
It’s not just the national polling that is tightening, though. At the state level, Harris is seeing some regression, and CNN recognized that on Monday. The network’s election analyst, Harry Enten, sounded the alarm, noting that the vice president is in danger of losing the entire election because of her inability to lock up Pennsylvania.
CNN’s Harry Enten Sounds Alarm About Harris’ Vanishing Lead In ‘Very Pivotal’ Swing State pic.twitter.com/Nlk0Hztm7S
— Daily Caller (@DailyCaller) September 9, 2024
“So I just want to take a look at Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania, Pennsylvania. And what we see is a tightening race in the commonwealth of Pennsylvania, alright? This is Harris versus Trump margin in the great commonwealth of Pennsylvania,” Enten told host John Berman. “A month ago, when you looked at the polls, New York Times plus four Harris, plus three Quinnipiac for Harris, Franklin & Marshall, plus three for Harris.”
“But look at polls that have come out over the last week or so. And what do we see? We see a much tighter race. We see a tie in the CBS News’ YouGov poll. We see a tie in the CNN/SSRS poll,” he continued. “And this, to me, is part of an emerging pattern, which is in a very pivotal state, what we saw was a small Harris lead, but within the margin of error becoming a race that is way, way, way too close to call at this particular point, one that is even.”
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If you take a look at the RCP average, it’s currently tied. Of the last seven polls, three have been tied, three have shown Trump leading, and only one has Harris ahead. The latter would be the always-Democrat-friendly Morning Consult poll, which has been an outlier most of this cycle. That is a marked shift from the majority of polls showing Harris leading in the weeks immediately following her entry into the race.
How much does Pennsylvania matter? CNN’s John Berman asked, perhaps fishing for some alternative paths to victory if Harris were to lose the state. Enten wasn’t playing along and laid out two scenarios showing that Pennsylvania is likely to be decisive. With that context, Harris passing over Gov. Josh Shapiro for the guy pictured below could become one of the biggest campaign blunders in modern history.
Not alpha male material here. pic.twitter.com/TkcOKhrNPP
— Burt Macklin (@BurtMaclin_FBI) September 9, 2024
All of this only raises the stakes of Tuesday’s debate even more. Any major mistake by either candidate could change the result. That’s not usually true with debates, but it’s also unusual to have a presidential race this close when it comes to available data. Perception is going to matter more than ever, and Trump has the chance to deliver a major blow if he shows up prepared and with a strategy to let Harris self-destruct.
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