DJ Giddens and the No. 18 Kansas State Wildcats head into Boulder to take on Heisman-hopeful Travis Hunter and the Colorado Buffaloes. The total for this game opened at 49.5 and has crept upward to 55.5 as of Friday morning.
Since losing to Nebraska in Week 2, Deion Sanders’ squad has reeled off three wins in a row, with the most recent being their 48-21 win over UCF two weeks ago. Meanwhile, Kansas State is tied with Indiana and Oklahoma for No. 18 in the AP Poll, the first time since 1998 that three or more teams have been tied for a spot in the poll.
A win for either teams makes the path to the Big 12 championship game much easier. You can catch all of the action at 10:15 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Odds current as of publish time, courtesy of ESPN BET
The lines
Spread: Kansas State (-3.5)
Moneyline: Kansas State (-165), Colorado (+140)
Over/under: 55.5 (-115/-105)
First-half spread: Kansas State -2.5 (-115), Colorado +2.5 (-105)
First-half moneyline: Kansas State (-160), Colorado (+125)
First-half total points: O/U 24.5 points (-175/+135)
Pamela Maldonado’s pick: Kansas State at Colorado +3.5
Colorado +5.5 was my first bet on Monday, since then the line has moved to +3.5. Despite this shift, I’m sticking with Colorado and believe they can win outright (+180).
Shedeur Sanders and the Buffs’ receivers are poised to exploit Kansas State’s secondary. Sanders’ ability to make throws under pressure will challenge the Wildcats’ defense. He ranks 10th in total passing yards (1,630), 14th in completion percentage (70.1%), and is tied for the fifth-most passing touchdowns (14), despite being the third-most sacked quarterback in the country (17).
Sanders’ success is partly due to a strong receiving corps, led by Heisman candidate Travis Hunter, who has 46 receptions for 561 yards and six touchdowns through five games. Kansas State’s front seven is a weakness, ranked 127th by PFF, which could give Sanders more time to find open receivers. Additionally, K-State has one of the worst secondaries in the nation, ranking 115th in passing yards allowed.
Meanwhile Colorado’s defense has shown significant improvement from the 2023 season. They forced four turnovers in Week 5 and slowed down UCF’s nation-leading rushing offense. The Buffs’ defense has forced nine turnovers over the past three games and hasn’t allowed more than seven points in the second half all season, tied for fourth-best in the FBS.
Colorado’s loss to Nebraska in Week 3 sparked a turnaround for the team. They showed resilience in the second half which has carried over to subsequent games. The Buffaloes have outscored opponents 124-61 in the 14 quarters since halftime of the Nebraska game. Their improved defense, offensive capabilities, and growing confidence make them a strong upset pick against Kansas State.
Betting trends
Courtesy ESPN Research
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Kansas State is 0-5 ATS as a road favorite since the start of last season.
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Colorado is 3-0 ATS as a home underdog under Deion Sanders.
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Colorado is 6-1 ATS in their last seven conference games, and they were underdogs in six of those seven.
