Iran’s massive missile strike on Israel is just a fraction of what China could do

• Iran launched a massive ballistic missile strike on Israel this week, what appears to be the largest ever.
• The attack represents just a fraction of the scale, devastation, and capabilities a China missile strike could have, experts said.
• China’s missile force is the crown jewel of its military, and the US has long expressed concerns about it.

Iran launched a major missile strike on Israel earlier this week likely intended to overwhelm the country’s air defenses and inflict significant damage.

The Iranian attack was massive, perhaps the largest ballistic missile strike in history, but it represents just a fraction of the scale and capabilities of what a Chinese missile attack could look like. Such an attack would thus be significantly more difficult to defeat.

China’s missile force is a point of concern for the US military, which views China as its “pacing challenge.” The Department of Defense has been tracking a “dramatic expansion” of the People’s Liberation Army’s Rocket Force, the missile branch of China’s military.

From 2021 to 2022, for example, China effectively doubled its stock of some ballistic missiles and launchers. The increase in China’s stockpile of medium-range and intermediate-range ballistic missiles, in particular, represents a potential threat to US forces and allies across the Indo-Pacific region.

In the event of a conflict, which military leaders do not see as imminent or inevitable but consider a growing possibility, American bases and assets positioned across the region could face bombardment on a level not seen before. Should China and the US go to war, possibly over a potential Chinese invasion or takeover of Taiwan or some other point of tension, the US could find itself under heavy fire involving China’s vast arsenal of ballistic missiles.

Compared to what Iran just did to Israel, a Chinese missile strike would likely be far larger and more lethal, experts said.

“Although Russia’s missile activity in Ukraine is certainly a competitor, Iran has this year carried out what are quite probably the two largest missile attacks in a single day. Both were structured and complex attacks, designed to complicate the task of air defenders,” Tom Karako, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and the director of the Missile Defense Project there, told Business Insider.

“What China would do, however, could be an order of magnitude worse than anything we’ve seen so far in the Middle East.”

A massive missile strike

Iran’s attack, launched Tuesday in two waves with some advance notice, included over 180 ballistic missiles. The strike was in response to Israel’s killings of Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah last Friday and the Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh back in July.

Early evidence suggests the missiles were focused on military and government targets in Israel, including some located near or directly in the densely populated central area of the country.

US and Israeli officials said that the attack was ineffective and ultimately defeated. Air-defense platforms intercepted a majority of the missiles, though some were possibly allowed to pass through in areas where the impact wouldn’t be overly detrimental. Some others may have failed or veered off-course, but that wasn’t immediately clear. Verified videos online captured the attack and response.

The US confirmed that American military assets in the area, including the USS Cole and USS Bulkeley destroyers operating in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, shot down Iranian missiles. British assets were also involved, helping support Israel’s complex air-defense network.

The Institute for the Study of War noted that the latest Iranian attack appeared to better penetrate air defenses than the attack in April, suggesting that Iran has learned and changed its strike package to better achieve its aims. Still, the attack does not appear to have been particularly destructive.

Israel reported no casualties and only limited damage in the aftermath but vowed to retaliate. The US had said before the attack that Iran would face severe consequences if it went through with it; it’s unclear what that will look like.

The value of air defenses

The ability of Israel’s air defenses, along with assistance from the US and others, to apparently intercept a majority of the missiles highlights the value of air defenses.

That air-defense assets, from ground-based interceptors to aircraft to warships, were able to blunt such a massive missile attack speaks to the importance of these systems, which have more than proven their worth in other conflicts and would likely be needed in far greater numbers in a high-end future fight.

Karako said that recent battles have been “remarkable demonstrations of both operational finesse and stunning technical capability of US and Israeli missile defenses. While no weapon system is perfect, these are some impressive engagement records.” China would, however, present a greater challenge.

The differences between Iran’s attack and a potential Chinese missile strike are probably best understood through scale, sophistication, and intent.

A Chinese missile strike “could be a much larger scale with much more sophisticated sequencing and capabilities across a much larger area and potentially with far less warning,” Thomas Shugart, an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security think tank and former US naval officer, said.

China’s rocket force maintains a much larger and likely more effective arsenal of ballistic missiles than Iran and a variety of missiles for conventional and nuclear engagements. More traditional ballistic missiles like the DF-21 and DF-26 could be used for strikes on American bases, as well as naval assets. China also has newer missiles like the DF-17 hypersonic missile that can complicate air defense by flying low and maneuvering along unpredictable flight paths.

Based on available open-source information about the Chinese missile force, the rocket force’s capabilities are far more sophisticated and, therefore, likely more accurate than Iran’s missiles. China also prioritizes surprise, another challenge.

And then there’s targeting. “The kind of strike that China would launch might be spread over a much larger area” than Iran’s attack on Israel, Shugart said, adding that a Chinese missile strike may also include larger salvos in more waves than Iran’s, with the aim being to overwhelm and destroy enemy air defenses before engaging US military assets largely unopposed.

The US and its allies in the Western Pacific have a mix of air defenses in place, such as Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) batteries, Patriot batteries, and Aegis-equipped warships. And efforts are ongoing to boost those defenses. The US and Japan agreed to team up earlier this year to develop a missile defense system that can effectively intercept hypersonic weapons.

But more is likely needed considering the threat. A former commander of what was previously Pacific Command told BI earlier this year that one of the best ways to counter PLARF would be to make “robust” air and missile defenses a reality this decade.