Vice President Kamala Harris’ Muslim problem hasn’t been solved as early voting begins, and it could be enough to doom her in crucial swing states.
New polling of American Muslims shows the Democratic presidential nominee has yet to consolidate the demographic — and a surprising spoiler is more than holding her own in some battlegrounds
Green Party candidate Jill Stein leads Harris among the group in six battleground states overall, 30% to 28%, per the Council on American-Islamic Relations’ survey released Monday.
And Stein (a serial candidate at this point) leads outright in Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin.
Two of these races are close. One of them is not — and unfortunately for Harris, that’s the one with the highest concentration of exponents of the Islamic faith.
In the Grand Canyon State, Stein has 35% support to Harris’ 29%; she also leads Harris in Wisconsin, 44% to 39%.
But the problem is most acute for the Democrat in the Wolverine State, where nearly 250,000 Muslims live amid 8.4 million registered voters. President Biden’s problem with “uncommitted” voters in the uncompetitive primary has seemingly spilled over into Harris’ general-election race, despite the veep’s fitful, triangulating calls for a “cease-fire” during her otherwise canned rally speeches.
Harris ekes out 12% support among Muslim voters, putting her not just behind Stein’s 40% but former President Donald Trump’s 18%.
Incredibly, given Trump spent years arguing for a “total and complete shutdown of Muslims entering the United States,” his second place in Michigan isn’t his best showing with the group.
Trump accomplishes that in Nevada, where his 27% is essentially a dead heat with Harris’ 29%, with Stein taking 13%.
Muslims are not a monolith either; the data reveal different backing based on age group — and that may have provisional good news for Harris with higher-propensity voters.
The vice president has roughly a third of support across the entire sample among voters 50 and older, but Stein is no slouch, with a third among those 30 to 39 years of age and a third in her own right among senior citizens.
Trump takes a sixth of support among 30-something Muslims. Minor candidates Cornel West and Chase Oliver are non-factors with Muslims, tracking with their performance outside that demographic.
Over the entire Muslim-American sample, Stein holds her own with Democrats and independents, with 32% of support among Dems compared to 33% for Harris, and 30% among independents compared with 32% for the veep. Trump has 48% with Republican Muslims, with Stein at 18% and Harris at 11% among that group.
