Red state Democrats, long an endangered species, may be losing one of their top members on Capitol Hill in November, according to new polling.
The race for Montana’s U.S. Senate seat pits incumbent Jon Tester (D-MT) against conservative challenger Joe Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL running with former President Donald Trump’s endorsement. Tester, 68, has been a presence in Washington since winning his first full term in 2006 and since has walked a fine line, embracing compassionate policies popular among Democrats while separating himself on issues over the years that kept conservative Montanans splitting their votes to support him. That precarious dance may be in its swan song after 18 years; as the state has trended more reliably red, Sen. Tester’s margin of victory has thinned. Now, Cook Political Report has moved the contest from a Toss-up ranking to Lean Republican.
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The change is devastating for Democrats who already faced headwinds against their hope to keep control of the Senate next year. Not only has Montana grown more red, but Senate Republicans picked up a top recruit in Sheehy, who has flexed his formidable fundraising prowess and staked out a number of criticisms of Tester that have resonated with voters. Following last year’s attack on Israel by Hamas, Sen. Tester was chased through the Senate hallways and peppered with questions about why he voted to restrict aid to Israel.
Race rating change: #MTSEN moves from Toss Up to Lean R.
Read @JessicaTaylor‘s latest: https://t.co/aX5bXEP1xL
— Cook Political Report (@CookPolitical) September 12, 2024
Polling last month began to show Tester slipping behind Sheehy by 2 points, 48% to 46%, with just 5% of voters remaining undecided. The Democratic incumbent is expected to spend heavily to advertise his way out of unemployment; in June, Sheehy reported raising over $14 million and ending the month with $3 million cash on hand, according to filings with the Federal Elections Commission. In comparison, Sen. Tester has raised nearly $44 million in that time and holds nearly $11 million on hand in a state where advertising is comparably cheaper than large-city media markets.
With the shift in polling, Democrats are now predicted to lose control of the Senate. Pollster Larry Sabato, whose “Crystal Ball” ratings are taken as a gold standard in the industry, currently gives Republicans better chances at controlling 50 Senate seats in 2025 while he expects Democrats to hold 48 seats; two remain toss-ups. Another guaranteed pick-up for Republicans is in West Virginia where Republican Governor Jim Justice is expected to easily win the seat of retiring moderate Sen. Joe Manchin (I-WV). Two contests rated as toss-ups are in Ohio, where Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) faces Trump-endorsed Bernie Moreno, and Michigan, where an open seat pits Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) against former Rep. Mike Rogers (R-MI).
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