Several hotly contested New York congressional races could decide which party controls Congress for the next years — after the Empire State surpisingly titled the balance in favor of the GOP two years ago.
There are now 220 Republicans and 211 Democrats as the GOP looks to hold onto power in the Nov. 5 elections while Democrats are looking to reclaim the gavel in a deeply blue state with presidential pick Kamala Harris at the top of the ticket.
Four GOP wins in New York’s swing districts in the 2022 midterm elections helped secure the GOP majority, but now those first-term incumbents face tough re-election fights.
Three other races are deemed potentially competitive.
The Democrats regained one seat in a February special election, when Rep. Tom Suozzi won back House District 3 covering parts of Nassau County and Queens vacated when serial fibber and convicted crook — first-term Republican Rep. George Santos — was expelled from office.
Suozzi had previously represented the district but did not seek re-election in 2022 as he launched an ill-fated run for governor.
Key factors in the races this year will include how well former Republican President Donald Trump and Harris fare at the top of the ticket in the purple districts — and how that will affect down ballot races, political insiders said.
It’s also the first presidential election since the U.S. Supreme overturned the 1973 Roe vs Wade ruling, largely leaving abortion legislation up to state governments.
Over the summer, the Super Pac for the Democratic Congressional Committee and other allied groups came out swinging — running million of dollars in TV ads attacking Republicans as anti-women. The incumbents’ campaigns ran counter ads saying they oppose imposing a national ban on abortion.
New York has one of the nation’s strongest abortion rights laws.
Republicans say the voters are with them on the major bread-and-butter issue and will put Democrats on the defensive on the inflation-impacted economy during the Harris-Biden years, crime and illegal immigration.
Democrats are bullish about picking up seats.
“Eight weeks out from Election Day, New York Democrats are building formidable campaigns to reach every voter possible across Long Island, the Hudson Valley, and Central New York,” said Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesperson Ellie Dougherty.
“Meanwhile, their Republican opponents are running on a disastrous record of restricting abortion rights, slashing Social Security and Medicare, and defunding law enforcement — which is why they’re panicking about their increasing money gap and losing momentum in these swing House races,”
State Republican Party chairman Ed Cox said the major issues a broad swath of voters care about — the economy, illegal immigration and crime — favor Repubilcans.
“The impact of inflation has cut into the incomes of workers by 5% to 15%,” Cox said.
He also said Republican Rep. Brandon Williams bid for winning re-election bid “looks better” than a Cook Political Report ranking indicates.
The four races to watch, according to the Cook Political Report rankings:
District 4: (Suffolk/East End)
Republican Rep. Anthony D’Esposito
Democrat Laura Gillen (former Hempstead Town supervisor)
Rating: Toss Up.
District 17: (Lower Hudson Valley: Rockland, Westchester, Putnam)
Republican Rep. Mike Lawler
Former Dem Rep. Mondaire Jones:
Rating: Toss Up
District 19: (Upper Hudson Valley/Southern Tier: Broome, Chenango, Columbia, Cortland, Delaware, Greene, Sullivan, Tioga, and Tompkins counties)
A rematch from 2022:
Republican Rep. Marc Molinaro
Democrat Josh Riley
Rating: Toss Up
District 22: (Syracuse region — Onondaga, Oneida and Madison counties)
Republican Rep. Brandon Williams, naval submarine officer, businessman
Democrat John Mannion, current state senator and former teacher
Rating: Lean Democrat
There are three other races deemed competitive, with incumbents holding an edge:
District 1: (Suffolk/East End)
Republican Rep. Nick La Lota
Democrat John Avlon
Rating: Likely Republican
District 3: (Nassau, Queens)
Democratic Rep. Tom Suozzi
Republican Mike LiPetri
Rating: Likely Democrat
District 18: (Dutchess, Orange counties)
Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan
Republican Alison Esposito (retired NY deputy inspector)
Rating: Lean Democrat
