A new survey from pivotal Pennsylvania suggests “Momala” should have picked the state’s favorite son as her running mate.
Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are knotted up in the Keystone State, per the Muhlenberg College/Morning Call poll of 450 likely voters in the commonwealth.
The survey, in the field from Sept. 16 to 19, shows both candidates at 48%, and it’s right in line with the RealClearPolitics polling average in the state, which has Harris up by 0.6%.
While the vice president leads by 5% with independents polled here, the former president is converting more Joe Biden voters from four years ago than Harris is from the Trump column.
Trump is retaining 97% of his 2020 voters and drawing 6% of Biden backers; Harris is at 92% with Biden’s supporters in 2020 and 2% with Trumpers from the last cycle.
These numbers contribute to her underperformance compared with Biden’s 1.17% 2020 win in the state.
And a possible reason could be Harris passing on Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro as a running mate, as he is much more popular than she is, with 59% approval against 27% disapproval.
Ironically, that’s down from his April numbers: 64% favorable, 19% unfavorable.
Previous polling from Emerson College showed 40% of Pennsylvania voters wanted Shapiro as Harris’ running mate, which didn’t come to pass, as Harris went with Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz.
The jury is still out on whether Walz has been a boost, even in his home-state. A recent MPR News/KARE 11/Star Tribune Minnesota poll shows Harris leads Trump by just 5 points, which means the race is still competitive down the stretch.
Even as the presidential race in Pennsylvania appears too close to call, this poll suggests Sen. Bob Casey has a marginal lead over his Republican challenger, David McCormick.
It’s a 4-point spread at 46% to 42%, with the remainder not sure (7%) or backing another candidate (4%).
When leaners are factored in, the Democratic incumbent is up 48% to 43%, with 27% of those initially reluctant to choose between the two major candidates going with Casey and just 7% moving to McCormick; 16% still won’t pick either one, and 50% are not sure.
Multiple recent surveys show Casey’s lead narrowing, with a Washington Post poll finding the Democrat just 1 point ahead of the Republican.
