The old F-16s the West is giving Ukraine can’t outmatch Russia’s best jets, former US general says

• The F-16s that Ukraine’s allies are giving it are older-generation aircraft.
• That means they can’t outclass Russia’s best jets, a former US general and NATO official told BI.
• They lack the armaments needed to make them superior to Russian fighters.

The old F-16 models that Ukraine’s allies are giving it are no match for Russia’s best jets, a former US general told Business Insider.

The F-16s, which Ukraine has started receiving from its allies, are the most advanced aircraft Ukraine now has in its arsenal and are armed with more powerful bombs and missiles.

But Russia’s best aircraft still outclass them, retired US Army Maj. Gen. Gordon ‘Skip’ Davis, who was NATO’s deputy assistant secretary-general for its Defense Investment Division, told BI.

That division provides, among other things, technical, financial, and procedural expertise related to aerospace capabilities.

Davis said Ukraine’s F-16s “are making a difference now” and said when more arrive, that “will help them make more of a difference.”

Roughly twenty F-16s are expected to be delivered to Ukraine by the year’s end.

But he said the jets have “got some issues with range and with vulnerability” and that “even the best systems we can put on those aircraft will still not make them superior to some of the Russian best aircraft.”

To date, Ukraine’s allies have given it older F-16 models, which means they are more limited in ability, including having weaker radar systems.

In contrast, Davis said that Russia has “several hundred of some pretty advanced aircraft,” citing the SU-35S, a modern jet designed to hunt US stealth aircraft, the Su-30SM, a jet that made its maiden flight in 2012, and the MiG-31, a supersonic interceptor aircraft.

Many carry R-37M air-to-air missiles that have a longer range than Ukraine’s US-provided AIM-120 Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles.

Some of these jets have been seen in Ukraine, and some have reportedly been shot down.

All of them pose a threat to Ukraine’s F-16s, Davis said, along with Russia’s formidable batteries of surface-to-air missiles.

Those Russian jets, he added, “have missiles and radar that can reach out and attack the F-16s.”

“So that’s an issue, and that will remain an issue,” Davis said.

Ukraine’s new jets are old

Ukraine’s F-16s, which cost between $20 million and $70 million each, are of an older generation than many of the F-16s in service in other fleets, and many of its allies are now upgrading their planes to F-35s.

The Wall Street Journal reported in August that many of Ukraine’s F-16s “are secondhand and have decades of flying time already.”

Michael Bohnert, an air warfare expert at the RAND Corporation, described them to BI as “older airframes with not a lot of life left,” though he said that “doesn’t mean they’re bad.”

But he warned that “as planes get older, they do get more problems.”

Ukaine’s allies have given the F-16s some advanced systems, including the US Air Force loading them with new electronic warfare capabilities.

Davis said that step was “important for the F-16 maneuverability so they can at least get as close as possible, identify ground air systems and incoming missiles, and then jam them and react and protect the aircraft.”

Ukraine’s F-16s could also be made more powerful.

The US is reportedly deciding whether to send AGM-158 Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles, or JASSMs, to Ukraine, which would give its F-16s a longer strike range. And it decided last month to send Joint Standoff Weapon glide-bombs that have a 70-mile range.

But David warned that the F-16s are still at a disadvantage.

“The bottom line is you can give the F-16s the maximum capability for munitions, electronic warfare capabilities, they’re going to still be somewhat vulnerable to grounded defense and some of the most advanced fighters from Russia,” he said.

Aircraft roles are limited

The disadvantage Ukraine’s F-16s face is somewhat negated by the nature of the war and how aircraft are being used.

The deployment of air defenses by both Russia and Ukraine often keeps aircraft far from the front lines, making dogfights and air-to-air battles exceedingly unlikely.

But Russia’s more advanced — and more numerous — aircraft arsenal also means it has an advantage in using them to launch missiles.

Fortunately for Ukraine, Russia has kept many of its advanced aircraft out of the heavy fighting in Ukraine, preferring to fire long-range missiles from Russian airspace or batter Ukrainian positions with glide-bombs dropped from beyond the reach of Ukraine’s air defenses.

Air warfare experts told BI that this is likely in response to Ukraine shooting down many of its aircraft, and also that Russia likely has a future conflict with NATO countries in mind.

But Russia could decide at any time to use those aircraft more heavily.

Ukraine also appears to be keeping its initial F-16s far from Russia’s powerful air defense systems.

Davis said that the best thing Ukraine’s allies can do to help with the mismatch is to allow Ukraine to go after Russia’s air defenses.

Many of Ukraine’s allies, including the US, do not allow Ukraine to use long-range weapons they’ve supplied to hit targets on Russian soil, which means weapons systems can be placed in areas where they can fire at Ukraine without being targeted themselves.

Air warfare experts previously told BI that this makes the F-16s less effective, as they are more vulnerable in the air and less able to fly closer to the front.

Ukraine’s F-16 power is restricted for now

Ukraine’s F-16 fleet is also being impacted by other factors, like their small numbers, training bottlenecks in the West, and slow delivery.

Denmark, Norway, Belgium, and the Netherlands have pledged more than 85 F-16s to Ukraine, with an unspecified number delivered in August.

But Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in May that his country needed about 120 to 130 advanced fighter aircraft to challenge Russia in the air.

The jets also arrived much later than Ukraine wanted — which was shortly after the full-scale invasion began in 2022. Even before they’d arrived, air warfare experts told BI that they did not expect them to be a game changer, especially with their small initial numbers.

But they said the F-16s would help Ukraine defend itself from incoming drone and missile attacks, help to replenish lost aircraft numbers, and direct Russian missiles away from other targets.

They also described Ukraine getting its first F-16s as an early step in building up Ukraine’s air force for the long term — something that US officials have also said.

According to Davis: “Right now, we’re still in pretty early days of their employment.”

But, he said, the “bigger picture is more will be coming this year.”