New polling of the battleground Wolverine State suggests the Tuesday debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump didn’t help the Democrat in the chase for 15 electoral votes — though the Republican’s performance was widely panned.
The Insider Advantage survey conducted Wednesday and Thursday morning shows the former president with a 49% to 48% lead in Michigan, an advantage that includes a 5-point lead with independents, per pollster Matt Towery.
That’s not the only surprise Towery finds.
“The poll also showed a slightly higher amount of support for Trump among African-Americans (around 20%), which may be an aberration, or a reflection of higher African-American numbers seen in recent national surveys such as The New York Times survey,” Towery adds.
That 20% threshold is significant, given Trump campaign surrogates told The Post this summer they hope to get 25% to 30% of the black-male vote. The former president garnered just 12% of the black vote in 2020.
Towery cautions the surge in black support may be a Michigan-only phenomenon and may not matter that much in this particular state.
“Michigan’s African-American vote, while not insignificant, is half that of swing states such as Georgia, so the elevated numbers, if reduced to past historical levels, would not change the basic tie within the margins. I suspect that for various reasons unique to Michigan in this cycle, the African-American numbers are fairly accurate, at least for this stage in the contest.”
Towery also notes the debate didn’t have much effect on voter sentiment.
“The race remains extremely competitive both in Michigan and likely all of the battleground states,” Towery said, arguing that “the debate had little or no impact on the contest, particularly among independent voters, in this particular state.”
Across all battlegrounds, where 93 electoral votes are at stake in total, post-debate polling from Trafalgar shows a 48%-48% tie.
This is the second recent poll from Michigan to show Trump ahead with independents and in a strong position generally against Harris.
Co/efficient’s survey of 931 likely voters conducted between Sept. 4 and 6 showed a tie with Harris overall and a 25-point lead with independents in the state.
