As the polls between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris continue to tighten, the former president is starting to run away with a key demographic, according to new polling.
A survey conducted by Marist College in conjunction with NPR/PBS News shows that President Trump is seeing his best gains among independent voters, who have reached record-high numbers in recent years. Those results build on a previous finding by a New York Times/Siena poll showing that Trump is up 1% nationally among all likely voters.
(VOTE: Are You Supporting TRUMP Or KAMALA In November?)
Among independents, President Trump leads Harris 49% to 46%, a fact that is hidden within a poll that appears to have undersampled the number of nonpartisan voters nationally. A demographic breakdown of respondents shows 26% as independent, while in January Gallup reported that 43% of American voters no longer identify with either party. That’s good news for President Trump who, if the results hold, may benefit from a stronger turnout among a key demographic than the number surveyed by Marist.
President Joe Biden, who ended his campaign on July 21st, remains a deeply unpopular and polarizing figure, according to the poll. Just 43% of Americans approve of his presidency, a finding that Harris will struggle to detach herself from as she works to put distance between her campaign and the shell of Biden’s. That task was made more difficult on Tuesday when social media users noted that the Democratic nominee appeared to have lifted entire passages of Biden’s campaign pledges as she rolled out an “Issues” page for her website. Despite promising transparency with the unveiling, Harris was quickly critiqued by mainstream reporters who uncovered extreme, far-left answers she previously gave to special interest groups while running for president in 2019.
Most election forecasters believe the race will come down to a handful of swing states including Michigan, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Georgia, and North Carolina. The latter may have slipped away from Harris on Monday after North Carolina’s highest court removed Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. from the ballot, spoiling the chance for the former independent candidate to siphon support away from Trump. Meanwhile in Michigan, a state Biden won by nearly 3% four years ago, Harris’s lead has stalled at just one point. And in Pennsylvania, Democrats may be kicking themselves for not choosing Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro as the vice presidential nominee now that Harris and Trump are neck-and-neck.
The first presidential debate will occur Tuesday night, offering both candidates their first opportunity to speak directly with voters tuning in at home. An estimated 70% of Americans told pollsters they would watch the primetime showdown while 23% said they wouldn’t watch any of it, a reminder of how negative and tiring the seemingly never-ending election season has become for large swaths of voters.
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