With four weeks left in the WNBA regular season, it’s easy to predict the Minnesota Lynx will be the No. 1 seed in the playoffs and that Napheesa Collier continues to be the MVP favorite. But there’s still a lot to be determined.
And the hot takes we might have made in May — such as the expansion Golden State Valkyries will make the 2025 playoffs — don’t seem much like going out on a limb now.
By the same token, because of injuries and player movement, some of the lineups on court recently couldn’t have been predicted but now seem pragmatic, if nothing else. Getting to the end of a 44-game schedule with your team intact? Likely not going to happen. Making it to the postseason as healthy and cohesive as possible is the goal, but in some cases just getting there at all will be a success.
A few more twists, turns and surprises are likely on the way. In the meantime, ESPN’s Kendra Andrews, Kevin Pelton and Michael Voepel offer eight hot takes on the WNBA season.
Atlanta will finish ahead of New York for the No. 2 seed
For much of the season, the reigning WNBA champion New York Liberty looked like the top team or No. 2 team in the league. But on Wednesday, the Atlanta Dream‘s win over the Seattle Storm, combined with the Liberty’s loss to the Las Vegas Aces, moved Atlanta to a half-game lead over New York in the standings. The Liberty have a 2-1 edge over the Dream in their regular-season series, but the two meet again in Atlanta in 10 days.
According to ESPN Analytics, the Dream have the easiest remaining schedule in the WNBA. Though they face the Storm, Valkyries, Aces and Lynx heading into their matchup against the Liberty, Atlanta then will play the Connecticut Sun three times, the Los Angeles Sparks twice and Dallas Wings before the regular season ends.
New York, meanwhile, has the eighth-most difficult schedule, playing Las Vegas, Minnesota (twice) and the Chicago Sky before heading to Atlanta, and then facing a handful of teams in the playoff race to close the season.
The Liberty are also still awaiting the return of Breanna Stewart (bone bruise), who said she hopes to be back by the end of August, while the Dream just got Brittney Griner and Rhyne Howard back. Atlanta has hit its stride over the last month, winning six consecutive games and going 8-2 in its last 10, and looks capable of overtaking the Liberty to secure the No. 2 seed. — Andrews
1:04
Aces top Liberty 83-77
Jewell Loyd’s 21 points and A’ja Wilson’s double-double power the Aces past the Liberty.
Last year’s top two rookies are currently sidelined — a groin injury for Clark and a back injury for Reese — and neither the Indiana Fever nor Chicago Sky have announced timetables for them to return. There is a chance neither comes back for 2025; they are going to be league standouts for a long time, and perhaps it’s best for them to focus on healing completely for next year. That said, both undoubtedly want to return and finish this season.
But there’s likely less incentive for Reese, who last played on July 29, to return. The Sky (8-24) aren’t going to be a playoff team; considering their loss to Connecticut on Wednesday, they might even drop behind the Sun (6-26) for the league’s worst record.
Unless the bottom completely falls out, the Fever will be in the playoffs for the second year in a row after a seven-season absence. Clark has played just 13 games, the last on July 15. While the Fever on paper before the season looked like possible WNBA Finals contenders, that doesn’t seem like the case anymore, even if Clark returns. But if she’s deemed physically ready to come back, it could give Indiana more of a chance to win a playoff series. — Voepel
0:22
Kelsey Mitchell misses game-winning attempt
Kelsey Mitchell can’t get a shot to go down with 1.7 seconds left, sealing an 81-80 win for the Wings.
The Storm will make the playoffs
A six-game losing streak has left Seattle, which was 16-11 two weeks ago, in the eighth and final playoff spot. Worse yet, two of those losses came to the Los Angeles Sparks, who are a half-game back in the standings and have clinched no worse than a tie for the head-to-head season series. It’s now possible the first-round pick the Storm sent the Washington Mystics for Brittney Sykes a week ago could end up in the lottery.
Still, projections using ESPN’s Basketball Power Index had the Storm making the playoffs 88% of the time before Wednesday’s loss to Atlanta. The first five Seattle losses came by fewer than four points each, a historic streak — no WNBA team had ever lost more than three in a row by four points or fewer — that left the Storm wildly underperforming their plus-2.1 point differential, still good for sixth in the league.
Those defeats are banked, and Seattle isn’t “due” for good luck in future close games. (That’s known as the gambler’s fallacy.) But projecting forward, the Storm’s differential is a better gauge of their talent than a .500 record. Add in a difficult schedule for Golden State — including visiting Seattle in the Storm’s regular-season finale — and there’s still a good chance the Storm make the playoffs. — Pelton
The Sparks deserved multiple All-Stars
Only leading scorer Kelsey Plum made it from the Sparks, with forward Dearica Hamby as the biggest remaining snub after Brionna Jones, Kayla McBride and Brittney Sykes all got in as injury replacements. Center Azura Stevens had an underrated case of her own, having averaged 14.5 PPG and 8.4 RPG while shooting 42% from 3-point range.
The obvious argument against multiple Los Angeles All-Stars was the team’s lowly 6-13 record at the time rosters were announced. That was a product of injuries that left the Sparks thin at point guard and center, as well as without wings Rae Burrell and Rickea Jackson for extended stretches.
Since getting healthy, Los Angeles has been one of the WNBA’s best teams, going 10-4 since Independence Day. The Sparks boast the league’s top offensive rating in that span. Picking All-Stars based on team record is rarely a good idea, and L.A.’s turnaround is a useful reminder of why not. — Pelton
1:11
Sparks outlast Storm
Dearica Hamby’s and-1 with 5.6 seconds left lifts the Sparks past the Storm.
The Wings will play spoiler for the last two playoff spots
The Wings likely are too deep in a hole at 9-24 to climb out and get into the postseason. But if Golden State, Seattle, Los Angeles and Washington are battling for the last two playoff spots, Dallas will have something to say about who gets in. The Wings still have three games left against the Sparks, two against the Valkyries and one against the Storm.
Arike Ogunbowale (knee soreness) missed Tuesday’s 81-80 victory at Indiana. But Maddy Siegrist tied a career high with 22 points; she returned from injury Aug. 5 after being out since the second week of June. Li Yueru had 20 points and rookie of the year favorite Paige Bueckers had 16, plus 8 assists.
The Wings had lost 11 of 13 games before beating the Fever, so there is no guarantee they will spoil anything for any other team. But if they can recapture what they did well at Indiana, the Wings can help determine the playoff field. — Voepel
1:09
Wings hold on to defeat Fever
The Fever make a ferocious comeback in the fourth quarter, but it’s not enough to get a win over the Wings.
Not one coach will be fired after this season
Seven WNBA franchises replaced their coach after the 2024 season (plus Golden State made its first hire as it entered the league). Right now, five of those teams are sitting outside the playoffs: Los Angeles, Washington, Dallas, Chicago and Connecticut. The Sparks might be the most likely to get into the postseason, likely costing either Golden State or Seattle a playoff berth.
If it’s the Storm, they might opt to move on from Noelle Quinn after five seasons. But if Seattle makes it, we might see all the current coaching positions stay status quo, plus the addition of two new coaches with expansion teams Portland and Toronto.
What about Dallas, where first-year coach Chris Koclanes has taken social-media roasting based on how some fans have perceived players’ reactions to him during games? Consider that the players themselves haven’t said anything about this, and Koclanes has a long connection to general manager Curt Miller. Both are in their first season in Dallas. It’s not unheard of for teams to part ways with a coach after just one year — Chicago did it with Teresa Weatherspoon after last season — but it seems less likely to happen with Koclanes. — Voepel
The first round of the playoffs should be a best-of-five series
The WNBA Finals will be a best-of-seven series for the first time in league history this year, but the expansion of the playoffs shouldn’t stop there. The first round, currently a three-game series, should be best-of-five, like the WNBA semifinals.
That move would also make travel a bit easier. The first round follows a 1-1-1 format, with the better seed hosting Game 1 and, if necessary, Game 3. If the playoffs started today, the Liberty would host the Storm. That’s a six-hour flight across the country for just one game, then heading to Seattle for Game 2. In a best-of-five series, the trips would be longer (the better seed hosts Games 1, 2 and, if necessary, 5), but there would be more recovery time between flights.
Yes, this would add more games. Yes, this would make the season even longer. But playing a best-of-three series is too small of a sample size. One of the greatest parts of the playoffs is the adjustments made from game to game. There is more tension, more excitement and more lure. The playoffs are the best time of year in any sport, and as the WNBA continues to grow, the playoffs need to as well. — Andrews
Cathy Engelbert is doing a good job as WNBA commissioner
This really shouldn’t be considered a hot take, but it might sound like one since there is so much negativity online toward Engelbert. In my view, it’s unwarranted.
From a business perspective, the WNBA is in the best place it has ever been. Caitlin Clark’s immense popularity and crossover appeal to those who previously weren’t women’s basketball fans can’t be overstated; her impact on the league’s visibility is enormous and unprecedented.
And the WNBA’s other stars, the high level of play in general, the greater commitment of team ownership, the work of the players’ union and the expanded media coverage are all major factors, of course.
But give Engelbert credit, too. She took over in summer 2019 and has been at the helm for the 2020 collective bargaining agreement, the 2020 season in the COVID-19 bubble, the launch of the Commissioner’s Cup in-season competition, the move to charter flights, going to a seven-game WNBA Finals, and expansion to 18 teams by 2030. Put into any context, her time as commissioner continues to be very successful.
Are there still issues to solve? Of course, and hopefully many of them will be addressed in the new CBA. But Engelbert has overseen tremendous growth in the WNBA, which is the best possible thing for players. — Voepel
