The 2024 presidential race is heating up, and MSNBC’s Steve Kornacki delivered a sobering update on Tuesday for Vice President Kamala Harris as she prepares to face off against former President Donald Trump in a highly anticipated debate. With key battleground states in focus, Kornacki’s analysis showed the razor-thin margins that could determine the next President of the United States.
As the fall campaign season kicks into high gear, Kornacki broke down the latest polling data on MSNBC, showing that Harris holds a narrow three-point lead over Trump in the national average of major polls. The slim advantage, while a somewhat positive development for Democrats, is far from a guarantee of victory. Kornacki reminded viewers that national polls can be deceiving, particularly when it comes to predicting the outcome in the Electoral College.
“Kamala Harris is in a better position than Joe Biden was earlier this year when he was consistently trailing Trump in the polls,” Kornacki explained. “But a three-point lead nationally isn’t much comfort for Democrats when you look at how Trump has performed in the past.”
Kornacki pointed to the 2016 and 2020 elections as cautionary tales for Democrats. In both cases, Trump was trailing in the polls at this stage in the race but managed to defy expectations. In 2016, Hillary Clinton led by five points coming out of Labor Day, only to see Trump take the presidency. Similarly, in 2020, Joe Biden’s larger lead still resulted in a close call in the Electoral College.
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Trump’s ability to run from behind and rally in key states is something Democrats cannot afford to overlook. Kornacki highlighted seven critical battleground states that will likely decide the election: Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and North Carolina. Six of these states went blue in 2020, but Trump is already making inroads, particularly in Pennsylvania, where Republicans see an opportunity to flip the state back to red.
“For Harris, the path to victory is clear but narrow,” Kornacki said as he displayed his famous “Road to 270” map. “If she can hold on to the Great Lakes states—Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania—she reaches the magic number of 270 electoral votes. But if she slips up, particularly in Pennsylvania, her road to the White House gets a lot more complicated.”
Kornacki explained that if Harris loses Pennsylvania, she would need to win at least two states from the Sun Belt, where Trump is fiercely competitive. On the flip side, Trump’s simplest path to victory is through Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia. Winning just these three swing states would give him exactly 270 electoral votes, just enough to reclaim the presidency.
Pennsylvania has proven to be a crucial battleground state with very narrow margins of victory. In the 2020 election, Biden flipped Pennsylvania blue, winning approximately 50% of the vote compared to Trump’s 49%. This marked a return to Democrat control of the state after Trump had won it in 2016. Back in that election, Trump secured Pennsylvania receiving about 48.2% of the vote, while Hillary Clinton garnered 47.5%. The victory was particularly notable because it was the first time a Republican presidential candidate had carried Pennsylvania since 1988.
