BETHLEHEM, Pa. — Three new polls show Pennsylvania Democratic Sen. Bob Casey’s lead over GOP challenger Dave McCormick narrowing — with one finding the candidates separated by just 1 point.
A joint New York Times, Philadelphia Inquirer and Siena College poll shows Casey (48%) leading McCormick (39%) by 9 points among registered voters — with 13% still undecided.
McCormick improved upon his 14-point deficit (50% to 36%) from the same poll back in August, having gained 3 points of support while Casey’s went down 2 points.
The second poll, from Lancaster’s Franklin & Marshall College, shows the same trend: Casey’s lead is in the high single digits, but McCormick’s gaining ground.
The Democrat (48%) leads the Republic (40%) by 8 points — down from his 12-point lead (48% to 36%) in August.
F&M notes more respondents described Casey’s job performance as “poor” (27%) than at any time since at least August 2007, in his first year in office.
Still, that poll shows Casey maintaining a much higher net-favorability rating (+2) than McCormick (-14) — perhaps the result of a Democratic ad blitz blasting the challenger’s time as a hedge-fund executive and challenging his deep ties to the Keystone State.
F&M finds a small number of Trump-Casey voters (2% of those surveyed) but almost no Harris-McCormick voters. Casey has historically overperformed among Pennsylvania’s more conservative older voters who remember his father’s time as a popular governor from 1987 to 1995.
Thursday’s third poll, from The Washington Post, finds Casey (47%) with just a 1-point advantage over McCormick (46%). The remaining 7% of respondents either back third-party candidates (3%) or are undecided (4%).
Both Casey and McCormick have barely favorable perceptions in that poll — 41% favorable, 40% unfavorable for Casey and 37% favorable, 35% unfavorable for McCormick.
The Pennsylvania Senate race is expected to draw record ad spending down the stretch as the candidates prepare to face off in debates next month.
Casey and McCormick have agreed to two debates — Oct. 3 in Harrisburg and Oct. 15 in Philadelphia — while a Pittsburgh debate remains in the works.
