Political betters are doubling down on former President Donald Trump’s chances in November, according to ever-shifting odds that continue to move in his favor.
Polymarket, which tracks online bets being staked on the outcome of the November election, currently shows Trump receiving 51% support among bettors compared to 47% predicting a win by Vice President Kamala Harris. The 4% overnight Monday into Tuesday is a pinch down from the 5% advantage Trump enjoyed following an error-laden Democratic National Convention last month, still putting him in the pole position. Pre-DNC figures showed Trump trailing Harris 48% to 52%, respectively, representing a net-positive eight-point swing in a matter of weeks.
(VOTE: Are You Supporting TRUMP Or KAMALA In November?)
Trump’s lead grew to 4% overnight. pic.twitter.com/nZJZbaD3Uu
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) September 3, 2024
Political bettors have their predictions set for all swing states except Pennsylvania and Nevada, both of which Trump won in 2016 but lost in his reelection bid. Other pivotal battlegrounds like Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, and Maine’s 2nd Congressional District are all favored to go for the Republican. The “blue wall” of midwestern battleground states like Wisconsin and Michigan are expected to remain intact for Harris, according to bettors.
Harris held a joint rally with President Joe Biden in Pennsylvania over the Labor Day weekend where both sharply criticized President Trump for implementing anti-worker policies during his four years in office. After weeks of hand-wringing over a pending sale of U.S. Steel to a Japanese conglomerate, Harris formally opposed the sale, telling labor crowds in Pittsburgh that the country’s largest steel producer should remain in domestic hands. Their appearance was not without its awkward moments, as when President Biden told a winding, somewhat unrelated story about the 1906 election when his great-grandfather was accused of murder.
The Trump campaign and its allies continue to make a play for Wisconsin and Michigan despite bettors’ pessimism about his chances. Over the weekend the Huffington Post reported that a political action committee supporting Trump began running digital ads targeting Muslim voters in Michigan, highlighting Harris’s denouncement of pro-Palestinian protestors and prompting accusations of dirty politics from Democrats. Before Biden ended his campaign, Congresswoman Debbie Dingell (D-MI) warned her party about the pitfalls of ignoring Michigan.
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Her state is not blue, Rep. Dingell told CNN in September last year. “It is purple. It is a very competitive state. And Donald Trump would do well in Michigan right now. The election’s a year away, we’re at a very volatile time, but I’m not taking Michigan for granted and I’m going to say I said that very strongly to many people,” she added.
Harris’s campaign is likewise anxious about the drop-off in support as her “honeymoon” period wanes weeks after she jumped into the race. Post-DNC polls did not show any movement in the vice president’s level of support, and she has been widely criticized by mainstream media figures for ducking interviews. After finally sitting down with running mate Tim Walz, she was knocked for relying on the Minnesota governor to fill up airtime in what turned out to be the only interview she conducted in the entire month of August.
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