A new survey from North Carolina is taking a look at the relative popularity of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, offering good news for Republicans in the pivotal swing state battle for the Tar Heel State’s 16 electoral votes.
The poll of 800 registered voters from Elon College, conducted Aug. 2 to Aug. 9 ahead of the Democratic National Convention, shows Trump is marginally more popular than Harris in the state, garnering 46% approval compared with her 44%.
Both candidates are underwater, disapproved of by half the voters.
“Our favorability data shows Trump and Harris with competitive levels of support,” remarks Professor Jason Husser, director of the Elon University Poll.
Demographic splits of the kind we’ve seen across the map surface here also.
Trump is above water with men, with 50% approval. Harris, at 39%, is lagging with that sex. Meanwhile, 47% of women regard Harris favorably, with 43% saying the same about Trump.
The favorability polling shows Trump is strongest with voters without a 4-year college degree; he’s at 52% with that group, with 43% disapproval. Another 5% have no opinion.
Among unaligned voters, Trump has just 35% approval against 54% disapproval, with 11% of indy respondents uncommitted either way.
Harris is at roughly the same level as Trump with independent voters, meanwhile, with 34% approval, 51% disapproval, and the remaining 15% without an opinion of the California Democrat.
The pollster believes all of this shows that North Carolina will come down to the wire in the next 70 days.
“Having been won by Republican presidential candidates for three elections in a row, North Carolina is sometimes called into question as a swing state,” said Husser. “Our data show that North Carolina’s electoral votes remain up for grabs by either party, but winning those votes will involve navigating a divided, complex and engaged electorate.”
While this poll is favorable to Trump, other surveys show positives for Harris in the state.
The vice president has what was called a “whisker-thin” lead in a Tar Heel State Survey USA poll from High Point University conducted between Aug. 19 and 21.
There, she was up 3 points with registered voters and 2 points with likely voters.
The FiveThirtyEight polling average for the state shows Harris up by the narrowest possible margin, at just one-tenth of a percentage point.
